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. The frequency and intensity of climate extremes is expected to increase inmany regions due to anthropogenic climate change. In central Europe extremetemperatures are projected to change more strongly than global meantemperatures, and soil moisture–temperature feedbacks significantly contributeto this regional amplification. Because of their strong societal, ecologicaland economic impacts, robust projections of temperature extremes are needed.Unfortunately, in current model projections, temperature extremes in centralEurope are prone to large uncertainties. In order to understand andpotentially reduce the uncertainties of extreme temperature projections inEurope, we analyze global climate models from the CMIP5 (Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble for thebusiness-as-usual high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We find a divergentbehavior in long-term projections of summer precipitation until the end ofthe 21st century, resulting in a trimodal distribution ofprecipitation (wet, dry and very dry). All modelgroups show distinct characteristics for the summer latent heat flux, top soilmoisture and temperatures on the hottest day of the year (TXx), whereas fornet radiation and large-scale circulation no clear trimodal behavior isdetectable. This suggests that different land–atmosphere coupling strengthsmay be able to explain the uncertainties in temperature extremes.Constraining the full model ensemble with observed present-day correlationsbetween summer precipitation and TXx excludes most of the very dryand dry models. In particular, the very dry models tend tooverestimate the negative coupling between precipitation and TXx, resultingin a warming that is too strong. This is particularly relevant for global warminglevels above 2  ∘ C. For the first time, this analysis allows for the substantial reduction ofuncertainties in the projected changes of TXx in globalclimate models. Our results suggest that long-term temperature changes in TXxin central Europe are about 20 % lower than those projected by the multi-modelmedian of the full ensemble. In addition, mean summer precipitation is foundto be more likely to stay close to present-day levels. These results arehighly relevant for improving estimates of regional climate-change impactsincluding heat stress, water supply and crop failure for central Europe.

Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe