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Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm\udoil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion\udof tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce\ud<q>sustainable</q> palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on\udSustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the\udenvironmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is\udprohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification,\udyet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El\udNiño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used\udtime series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns\udof fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In\udIndonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total\udforest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the\udfirst plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest\udloss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did\udnot stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire;\udonly 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active\udfire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly\udinfluenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity\udduring the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm\udplantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified\udplantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 %\udand 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations\udduring the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in\udfire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods,\udhighlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in\udpeatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires.\udHowever, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring\udcapabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and\udmeet industry commitments to zero deforestation

Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia