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We statistically analyse\udthe relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern\udBaltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the\udlong-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at\udan interannual resolution.\ud \ud \udThe present analysis is based on the dune record derived from geo-radar\udmeasurements by Ludwig et al. (2017). The dune system is located at the Baltic\udSea coast of Poland and is migrating from west to east along the coast. The\uddunes present layers with different thicknesses that can be assigned to\udabsolute dates at interannual timescales and put in\udrelation to seasonal wind conditions. To statistically analyse this record\udand calibrate it as a wind proxy, we used a gridded regional meteorological\udreanalysis data set (coastDat2) covering recent decades. The\udidentified link between the dune annual layers and wind conditions was\udadditionally supported by the co-variability between dune layers and observed\udsea level variations in the southern Baltic Sea.\ud \ud \udWe include precipitation and temperature into our analysis, in addition to\udwind, to learn more about the dependency between these three atmospheric\udfactors and their common influence on the dune system. We set up a\udstatistical linear model based on the correlation between the frequency of\uddays with specific wind conditions in a given season and dune migration\udvelocities derived for that season. To some extent, the dune records can be\udseen as analogous to tree-ring width records, and hence we use a\udproxy validation method usually applied in dendrochronology,\udcross-validation with the leave-one-out method, when the observational record\udis short. The revealed correlations between the wind record from the\udreanalysis and the wind record derived from the dune structure is in the\udrange between 0.28 and 0.63, yielding similar statistical validation skill as\uddendroclimatological records

A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement