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<p class="p">Extratropical cyclones of type Vb, which develop over the western\udMediterranean and move northeastward, are major natural hazards that are\udresponsible for heavy precipitation over central Europe. To gain further\udunderstanding in the governing processes of these Vb cyclones, the study\udexplores the role of soil moisture and sea surface temperature (SST) and\udtheir contribution to the atmospheric moisture content. Thereby, recent Vb\udevents identified in the ERA-Interim reanalysis are dynamically downscaled\udwith the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results indicate that\uda mean high-impact summer Vb event is mostly sensitive to an increase in the\udMediterranean SSTs and rather insensitive to Atlantic SSTs and soil moisture\udchanges. Hence, an increase of +5 K in Mediterranean SSTs leads to an average\udincrease of 24 % in precipitation over central Europe. This increase in\udprecipitation is mainly induced by larger mean upward moisture flux over the\udMediterranean with increasing Mediterranean SSTs. This further invokes an\udincrease in latent energy release, which leads to an increase in atmospheric\udinstability, i.e. in convective available potential energy. Both the\udincreased availability of atmospheric moisture and the increased instability\udof the atmosphere, which is able to remove extra moisture from the atmosphere\uddue to convective processes, are responsible for the strong increase in\udprecipitation over the entire region influenced by Vb events. Precipitation\udpatterns further indicate that a strong increase in precipitation is found at\udthe eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea for increased Mediterranean SSTs. This\udpremature loss in atmospheric moisture leads to a significant decrease in\udatmospheric moisture transport to central Europe and the northeastern flanks\udof the Alpine mountain chain. This leads to a reduction in precipitation in\udthis high-impact region of the Vb event for an increase in Mediterranean SSTs\udof +5 K. Furthermore, the intensity of the Vb cyclones, measured as a\udgradient in the 850 hPa geopotential height field around the cyclone centre,\udindicates that an upper bound for intensity might be reached for the most\udintense Vb event.</p

Sensitivity experiments on the response of Vb cyclones to sea surface temperature and soil moisture changes