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We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridionalheat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max PlanckInstitute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare aRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario,covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation,covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHTdeclines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in theNorth Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT isaccompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and itscomponents. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For theOHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° andlatitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associatedwith changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes inthe OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-drivensurface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHTin the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn tolatitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturningcomponent. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar NorthAtlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Waterformation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a stronglyweakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rdcentury

Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM