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We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System ClimateInterpretable Model), which runs on a desktopcomputer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from morecomplex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at workin the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climatehistory from 1850 to 2015.  We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paperwe present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policyinterventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year – around 1 %of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policyinterventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into thestratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in adecade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) thatrelatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this centurybelow +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, weconclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century butis likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however.In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to+3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcingmelting of the permafrost.  We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support ourtentative conclusions from ESCIMO

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100