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Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source ofpotable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the10 mg L−1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % ofdomestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEIagriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesseshow groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecastedclimate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices.For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and masstransport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island(5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transportsimulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projectedclimate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations foryear 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes:(1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related topresent-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings dueto changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions.The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate andagricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwaterrecharge regime induced by climate change (with current agriculturalpractices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the variousclimate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more thandoubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This studyunderlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural managementpractices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. Thesimulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes inagricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics ofnitrate transport within the aquifer system

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada