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Climate change may affect crop growth and yield, whichconsequently casts a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiencyefforts. In this study, we used the projections derived from four globalgridded crop models (GGCropMs) to assess the effects of future climatechange on the yields of the major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat)in China. The GGCropMs were forced with the bias-corrected climatedata from five global climate models (GCMs) under RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, which were made available through theInter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The resultsshow that the potential yields of the crops would decrease in the 21stcentury without carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) fertilization effect. With theCO<sub>2</sub> effect, the potential yields of rice and soybean would increase,while the potential yields of maize and wheat would decrease. Theuncertainty in yields resulting from the GGCropMs is larger than theuncertainty derived from GCMs in the greater part of China. Climate change maybenefit rice and soybean yields in high-altitude and cold regions which arenot in the current main agricultural area. However, the potential yields ofmaize, soybean and wheat may decrease in the major food production area.Development of new agronomic management strategies may be useful for copingwith climate change in the areas with a high risk of yield reduction

A multi-model analysis of change in potential yield of major crops in China under climate change