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A global sensitivity analysis is performed to describe the effectsof astronomical forcing on the climate–vegetation system simulatedby the model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM in interglacialconditions.  The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivitymeasures, using a Gaussian process emulator as a fast surrogate ofthe climate model, calibrated on a set of well-chosen experiments.The outputs considered  are the annual mean temperature andprecipitation and the growing degree days (GDD). The experimentswere run on two distinct land surface schemes to estimate theimportance of vegetation feedbacks on climate variance.  Thisanalysis provides a spatial description of the variance due to thefactors and their combinations, in the form of "fingerprints"obtained from the covariance indices.  The results are broadlyconsistent with the current under-standing of Earth's climate responseto the astronomical forcing. In particular, precession and obliquityare found to contribute in LOVECLIM equally to GDD in the NorthernHemisphere, and the effect of obliquity on the response of SouthernHemisphere temperature dominates precession effects. Precessiondominates precipitation changes in subtropical areas. Compared tostandard approaches based on a small number of simulations, themethodology presented here allows us to identify more systematicallyregions susceptible to experiencing rapid climate change in responseto the smooth astronomical forcing change. In particular, we findthat using interactive vegetation significantly enhances the expectedrates of climate change, specifically in the Sahel (up to 50%precipitation change in 1000 years) and in the Canadian Arcticregion (up to 3° in 1000 years). None of the testedastronomical configurations were found to induce multiple steadystates, but, at low obliquity, we observed the development of anoscillatory pattern that has already been reported in LOVECLIM.Although the mathematics of the analysis are fairly straightforward,the emulation approach still requires considerable care in itsimplementation. We discuss the effect of the choice of length scales andthe type of emulator, and estimate uncertainties associated withspecific computational aspects, to conclude that the principalcomponent emulator is a good option for this kind of application

Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach