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Abstract. The Baltic Sea region is very sensitive to climate change; it is aregion with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but it is alsounder pressure due to a high population in large parts of the area. Climatechange impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such asbiodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Seaconsiderably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of futureclimate change and its impacts in recent research. In this overview paper,we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from12.5 km horizontal resolution atmosphere-only regional climate models fromCoordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – European domain (EURO-CORDEX).Comparison will also be done with corresponding prior resultsas well as with coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models. The recentregional climate model projections strengthen the conclusions from previousassessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north inwinter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apartfrom the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lendmore credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of futureclimate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios givesopportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. Insimulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, the climate change signalis locally modified relative to the corresponding stand-alone atmosphereregional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupledsystem arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.

Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100