English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

. Land-use models and integrated assessment models provide scenarios of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related todifferent socioeconomic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variabilityin impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected differentassumptions regarding socioeconomic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model,we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential,agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where andhow particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of somedemands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processesrelated to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). As a result, some scenarios show questionable and possiblyunrealistic features in their LULC allocations, including highly regionalized LULC changes with rates of conversion that are contrary to orexceed rates observed in the past. Across the diverging LULC projections, we identified positive global trends of net primary productivity( + 10.2 %  ±  1.4 %), vegetation carbon ( + 9.2 %  ±  4.1 %), crop production ( + 31.2 %  ±  12.2 %) and waterrunoff ( + 9.3 %  ±  1.7 %), and a negative trend of soil and litter carbon stocks ( − 0.5 %  ±  0.4 %). The variability inecosystem service indicators across scenarios was especially high for vegetation carbon stocks and crop production. Regionally, variability washighest in tropical forest regions, especially at current forest boundaries, because of intense and strongly diverging LULC change projections incombination with high vegetation productivity dampening or amplifying the effects of climatic change. Our results emphasize that information onfuture changes in ecosystem functioning and the related ecosystem service indicators should be seen in light of the variability originating fromdiverging projections of LULC. This is necessary to allow for adequate policy support towards sustainable transformations.

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services