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. While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused on projected mean state changes and the sensitivity of specific modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge of forced changes inthe overall spectrum of climate variability and higher-order statistics isrelatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble ofclimate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Modelversion 2 over 1850–2100 to examine the sensitivity of internal climatefluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations revealthat changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitousand span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across manyspatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming in the model altersvariance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized bynon-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primaryproduction, or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have importantimplications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, seasonalpredictions, and assessing potential stressors for terrestrial andmarine ecosystems.

Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability