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. Under variable and changing climates groundwater storage sustains vitalecosystems and enables freshwater withdrawals globally for agriculture,drinking water, and industry. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwaterstorage (ΔGWS) from 2002 to 2016 in 37 of the world's large aquifersystems using an ensemble of datasets from the Gravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE) and land surface models (LSMs). Ensemble GRACE-derivedΔGWS is well reconciled to in situ observations (r=0.62–0.86,p value &lt;0.001) for two tropical basins with regional piezometricnetworks and contrasting climate regimes. Trends in GRACE-derived ΔGWS are overwhelmingly non-linear; indeed, linear declining trendsadequately (R2&gt;0.5, p value &lt;0.001) explainvariability in only two aquifer systems. Non-linearity in ΔGWSderives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishmentassociated with extreme annual (&gt;90th percentile,1901–2016) precipitation and is inconsistent with prevailing narratives ofglobal-scale groundwater depletion at the scale of the GRACE footprint(∼200 000 km2). Substantial uncertainty remains inestimates of GRACE-derived ΔGWS, evident from 20 realisationspresented here, but these data provide a regional context to changes ingroundwater storage observed more locally through piezometry.

Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation