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. This study uses the high-resolution outputs of the recentCORDEX-Africa climate projections to investigate the future changes indifferent aspects of the hydrological cycle over West Africa. Over thetwenty-first century, temperatures in West Africa are expected to increaseat a faster rate ( +0.5 ∘ C per decade) than the global average( +0.3 ∘ C per decade), and mean precipitation is expected toincrease over the Guinea Coast ( +0.03  mm d −1 per decade) but decreaseover the Sahel ( −0.005  mm d −1 per decade). In addition, precipitation isexpected to become more intense ( +0.2  mm d −1 per decade) and lessfrequent ( −1.5  d per decade) over all of West Africa as a result ofincreasing regional temperature (precipitation intensity increases onaverage by +0.35  mm d −1 ∘ C −1 and precipitation frequencydecreases on average by −2.2  d  ∘ C −1 ). Over the Sahel, theaverage length of dry spells is also expected to increase with temperature( +4  % d  ∘ C −1 ), which increases the likelihood fordroughts with warming in this subregion. Hence, the hydrological cycle isexpected to increase throughout the twenty-first century over all ofWest Africa, on average by +11  %  ∘ C −1 over the Sahel as aresult of increasing precipitation intensity and lengthening of dry spells,and on average by +3  %  ∘ C −1 over the Guinea Coast as aresult of increasing precipitation intensity only.

Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century