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. Much has been written about the so-called hiatus or pause in global warming,also known as the stasis period, the start of which is typically dated to1998. HadCRUT4 global mean temperatures slightly decreased over the 1998–2013 period,although a simple statistical model predicts that they should have grown by0.016 ∘C/yr, in proportion to the increases in the concentrations of well-mixedgreenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and ozone. We employ a statistical approach to assess thecontributions of model forcings and natural variability to the hiatus. Ourpoint estimates suggest that none of the model forcings explain more than one-third of the missing heat, accounting for the upper bound of the confidenceinterval on the effect of tropospheric aerosols, which is the most prominentyet most uncertainly measured of the model forcings that could explain themissing heat. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains up to aboutone-third of the missing heat, and two-thirds and possibly up to 81 % isexplained by the unusually high temperature of 1998. Looking forward, thesimple model also fails to explain the large increases since then(0.087 ∘C/yr from 2013 to 2016).This period coincides with another El Niño, butthe ENSO fails to satisfactorily account for the increase. Instead, we proposea semiparametric cointegrating statistical model that augments an energybalance model with a novel multi-basin measure of the oceans' multidecadaltemperature cycles. The model partially explains the recent slowdown andexplains all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests thepossibility – depending in part on the rate of increase of WMGHGconcentrations – of a much longer hiatus over the period from roughly 2023 to 2061, withpotentially important implications for policy evaluation.

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one