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. Biological diversity is inextricably linked to community stability andecosystem functioning, but our understanding of these relationships infreshwater ecosystems is largely based on short-term observational,experimental, and modelling approaches. Using a multidecadal diatom recordfor the past ca. 16 000 years from Lake Baikal, we investigate how diversityand palaeoproductivity have responded to climate change during periods ofboth rapid climate fluctuation and relative climate stability. We showdynamic changes in diatom communities during the past 16 000 years, withdecadal shifts in species dominance punctuating millennial-scale seasonaltrends. We describe for the first time in Lake Baikal a gradual shift fromspring to autumnal diatom communities that started during the Younger Dryasand peaked during the Late Holocene, which likely represents orbitally drivenecosystem responses to long-term changes in seasonality. Using amultivariate classification tree, we show that trends in planktonic andtychoplanktonic diatoms broadly reflect both long-term climatic changesassociated with the demise of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and abruptclimatic changes associated with, for example, the Younger Dryas stadial.Indeed, diatom communities are most different before and after the boundarybetween the Early and Middle Holocene periods of ca. 8.2 cal kyr BP, associatedwith the presence and demise of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respectively.Diatom richness and diversity, estimated using Hill's species numbers, arealso shown to be very responsive to periods characterized by abrupt climatechange, and using knowledge of diatom autecologies in Lake Baikal, diversitytrends are interpreted in terms of resource availability. Using diatombiovolume accumulation rates (BVARs; µm3 cm−2 yr−1), weshow that spring diatom crops dominate palaeoproductivity for nearly all ofour record, apart from a short period during the Late Holocene, whenautumnal productivity dominated between 1.8–1.4 cal kyr BP.Palaeoproductivity was especially unstable during the Younger Dryas,reaching peak rates of 18.3 × 103 µm3 cm−2 yr−1 atca. 12.3 cal kyr BP. Generalized additive models (GAMs), which exploreproductivity–diversity relationships (PDRs) during pre-defined climateperiods, reveal complex relationships. The strongest statistical evidence forGAMs were found during the Younger Dryas, the Early Holocene, and the LateHolocene, i.e. periods of rapid climate change. We account for thesedifferences in terms of climate-mediated resource availability, and theability of endemic diatom species in Lake Baikal to adapt to extreme formsof living in this unique ecosystem. Our analyses offer insight into howproductivity–diversity relationships may develop in the future under awarming climate.

Long-term trends in diatom diversity and palaeoproductivity: a 16 000-year multidecadal record from Lake Baikal, southern Siberia