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. Frequently occurring mega-droughts under current global climatechange have attracted broad social attention. A paleoclimatic perspective isneeded to increase our understanding of the causes and effects of droughts.South-western (SW) China has been threatened by severe seasonal droughts. Ourcurrent knowledge of millennial-scale dry and wet phases in this region isprimarily based on the variability of the Indian summer monsoon. However,water availability over land does not always follow patterns of monsoonalprecipitation but also depends on water loss from evaporation andtranspiration. Here, we reconstructed precipitation intensity, lakehydrological balance and the soil water stress index (SWSI) for the last27 000 years. Grain size, geochemical and pollen records from Yilong Lakereveal the long-term relationships and inconsistencies of dry–wet patternsin meteorological, hydrological and soil systems in the central Yunnan region,SW China. Our results show that the long-term trends among precipitation,hydrological balance and soil moisture varied through time. The hydrologicalbalance and soil moisture were primarily controlled by temperature-inducedevaporation change during periods of low precipitation such as the LastGlacial Maximum and Younger Dryas. During periods of high precipitation (the early to late Holocene), intensified evaporation from the lake surfaceoffset the effects of increased precipitation on the hydrological balance.However, abundant rainfall and the dense vegetation canopy circumvented asoil moisture deficit that might have resulted from rising temperature. Inconclusion, the hydrological balance in the central Yunnan region was moresensitive to temperature change while soil moisture could be furtherregulated by vegetation changes over millennial timescales. Therefore, underfuture climate warming, the surface water shortage in the central Yunnan regionmay become even more serious. Our study suggests that reforestation effortsmay provide some relief to soil moisture deficits in this region.

Different facets of dry–wet patterns in south-western China over the past 27 000 years