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. The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by awarm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often consideredan interesting analogue for near-future climate projections.Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures,decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africacharacterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using modelresults from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling IntercomparisonProject (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall duringthe mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrialperiod. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall overWest Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d,contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalouswarming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in&gt;90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM andan increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of theSahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previousstudies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrastover the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase inthat region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gasforcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-termresponse of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble