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Abstract. Interdecadal variability in the salinity of the Baltic Sea is dominated by a 30-year cycle with a peak-to-peak amplitude of around 0.4  g kg −1 at the surface.Such changes may have substantial consequences for the ecosystem, since species are adapted to a suitable salinity range and may experience habitat shifts.It is therefore important to understand the drivers of such changes.We use both analysis of empirical data and a numerical model reconstruction for the period of 1850–2008 to explain these interdecadal changes.The model explains 93 % and 52 % of the variance in the observed interdecadal salinity changes at the surface and the bottom, respectively, at an oceanographic station at Gotland Deep.It is known that the 30-year periodicity coincides with a variability in river runoff.Periods of enhanced runoff are followed by lower salinities.We demonstrate, however, that the drop in mean salinity cannot be understood as a simple dilution of the Baltic Sea water by freshwater.Rather, the 30-year periodicity in river runoff occurs synchronously with a substantial variation in salt water import across Darss Sill.Fewer strong inflow events occur in periods of enhanced river runoff.This reduction in the import of high-salinity water is the main reason for the freshening of the water below the permanent halocline.In the bottom waters, the variation in salinity is larger than at the surface.As a consequence, the surface layer salinity variation is caused by a combination of both effects: a direct dilution by river water and a reduced upward diffusion of salt as a consequence of reduced inflow activity.Our findings suggest that the direct dilution effect is responsible for 27 % of the salinity variations only.It remains unclear whether the covariation in river runoff and inflow activity are only a coincidental correlation during the historical period or whether a mechanistic link exists between the two quantities, e.g. whether both are caused by the same atmospheric patterns.

Investigating interdecadal salinity changes in the Baltic Sea in a 1850–2008 hindcast simulation