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. The reconstructed surface-temperature time series fromboreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understandingof multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a goodway to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequencyclimate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematicmodel–data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional orlocal scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to performsuch a comparison using borehole measurements and the correspondingreconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standardapproach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climatemodel at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in thetime domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Althoughsome characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniformsmoothing, limit to some extent the model–data comparison, several robustfeatures can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model–data comparisonbased on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using aforward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profileswhen driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domainis not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but alsoprovides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison inthe time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derivemetrics that can be applied for future model–data comparison. We alsodescribe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics.The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE(−1.0 ∘C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with aweaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 ∘C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to showwarming instead. The trend over the last 50 years is generally wellreproduced in West Antarctica and at Larissa (Antarctic Peninsula) butoverestimated at other sites. The wide range of simulated trends indicatesthe importance of internal variability in the observed trends and shows thevalue of model–data comparison to investigate the response to forcings.

climate of the past

Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium