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. The scarcity of longinstrumental records, uncertainty in reconstructions, and insufficient skillin model simulations hamper assessing how regional precipitation changed overpast centuries. Here, we use standardized precipitation data to compare aregional climate simulation, reconstructions, and long observational recordsof seasonal (March to July) mean precipitation in England and Wales over thepast 350 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index is a valuable tool forassessing agreement between the different sources of information, as itallows for a comparison of the temporal evolution of percentiles of theprecipitation distributions. These evolutions are not consistent amongreconstructions, a regional simulation, and instrumental observations forsevere and extreme dry and wet conditions. The lack of consistency betweenthe different data sets may be due to the dominance of internal climatevariability over the impact of natural exogenous forcing conditions onmulti-decadal timescales. The disagreement between sources of informationreduces our confidence in inferences about the origins of hydroclimatevariability for small regions. However, it is encouraging that there is stillsome agreement between a regional simulation and observations. Our resultsemphasize the complexity of hydroclimate changes during the recent centuriesand stress the necessity of a thorough understanding of the processesaffecting forced and unforced precipitation variability.

Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE