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The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater\udunderstanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as\udunique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In\udthis study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate\udreconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced\udtransient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from\udthe CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction\uddata are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that\udproduce droughts–pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical\udsimilarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed\udhydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated\udmulti-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated\udhigh-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy\udrecord. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase\udcoherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal\udtimescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm\udperiods and vice versa. The CMIP5–PMIP3 archive suggests, however,\udout-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium.\udThe lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and\udmoisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for\udattribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings\udstress the need for further paleoclimate data–model intercomparison\udefforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate\udvariability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models,\udand to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium – insights from a climate model–proxy data comparison