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There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, howclimate–vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can usethis information to understand the present. Here we report vegetationmodelling results for the Late Miocene (11–7 Ma) to study the mechanisms ofvegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influencethe spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties isthe atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimatesfor the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulatedLate Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppmCO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model(LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-OceanGeneral Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared toexisting plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For thecomparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of therelative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in thepalaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreementbetween the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on thisquantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels arelargely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe(suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggestedby multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocenethe CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that arenot included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests andopen vegetation

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in the late Miocene

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in the late Miocene