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In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are afirst order factor in determining changes in the primary production of thenorthwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. Wepresent a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations,using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis dataand a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model(OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRESA1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control.The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surfacenutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing futureand present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanicstratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fractionof on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of thedomain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient andprimary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. Thisrelationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winternitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primaryproduction by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelfprocesses relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season)and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model(Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show amodest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decreaseof 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. Thesefindings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and asimple mixing model

biogeosciences

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario