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. The northern Humboldt Current system (NHCS or Peru upwelling system)sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a nearshoresurface cooling has been observed off southern Peru in recent decades, thereis still considerable debate on the impact of climate change on the regionalecosystem. This calls for more accurate regional climate projections of the21st century, using adapted tools such as regional eddy-resolvingcoupled biophysical models. In this study three coarse-grid Earth systemmodels (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) areselected based on their biogeochemical biases upstream of the NHCS, andsimulations for the RCP8.5 climate scenario are dynamically downscaled at∼12 km resolution in the NHCS. The impact of regional climatechange on temperature, coastal upwelling, nutrient content, deoxygenation,and the planktonic ecosystem is documented. We find that the downscalingapproach allows us to correct major physical and biogeochemical biases of theESMs. All regional simulations display a surface warming regardless of thecoastal upwelling trends. Contrasted evolutions of the NHCS oxygen minimumzone and enhanced stratification of phytoplankton are found in the coastalregion. Whereas trends of downscaled physical parameters are consistent withESM trends, downscaled biogeochemical trends differ markedly. These resultssuggest that more realism of the ESM circulation, nutrient, and dissolvedoxygen fields is needed in the eastern equatorial Pacific to gain robustnessin the projection of regional trends in the NHCS.

Physical and biogeochemical impacts of RCP8.5 scenario in the Peru upwelling system