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. We evaluated how ranges of four endemic and non-endemic aquatic ostracodespecies changed in response to long-term (glacial–interglacial cycles) andabrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northernNeotropical region. We employed two complementary approaches, fossil recordsand species distribution models (SDMs). Fossil assemblages were obtainedfrom sediment cores PI-1, PI-2, PI-6 and Peten-Itza 22-VIII-99 fromthe Peten Itza Scientific Drilling Project, Lake Peten Itza,Guatemala. To obtain a spatially resolved pattern of (past) speciesdistribution, a downscaling cascade is employed. SDMs were reconstructedfor the last interglacial ( ∼120  ka), the last glacial maximum ( ∼22  ka) and the middle Holocene ( ∼6  ka). During glacial and interglacial cycles and marine isotope stages (MISs),modelled paleo-distributions and paleo-records show the nearly continuouspresence of endemic and non-endemic species in the region, suggestingnegligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic nichestability. During periods of abrupt ecological disruption such as HeinrichStadial 1 (HS1), endemic species were resilient, remaining within theircurrent areas of distribution. Non-endemic species, however, proved to bemore sensitive. Modelled paleo-distributions suggest that the geographicrange of non-endemic species changed, moving southward into Central America.Due to the uncertainties involved in the downscaling from the globalnumerical to the highly resolved regional geospatial statistical modelling,results can be seen as a benchmark for future studies using similarapproaches. Given relatively moderate temperature decreases in LakePeten Itza waters ( ∼5 ∘ C) andthe persistence of some aquatic ecosystems even during periods of severe dryingin HS1, our data suggest (1) the existence of micro-refugia and/or (2) continuousinteraction between central metapopulations and surrounding populations,enabling aquatic taxa to survive climate fluctuations in the northernNeotropical region.

Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes