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. Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and humanactivities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fireregimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover,land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomassburning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europeover the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen andsedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations andstatistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holoceneand lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained asignificant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, treecover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning overthe past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ∼45  % tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60 % and70 % tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning washighest at ∼  60 %–65 % tree cover and steeply declined at >65  % tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arablelands and grasslands reached ∼  15 %–20 %, although thisrelationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignitionsources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount ofsolar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, morewind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuelflammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to bedriven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene andby increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that long-term fire hazardmay be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that landcover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of theHolocene.

Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe