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Abstract. The Mediterranean region is a climate changehotspot. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to asubstantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea as well as major changes in itscirculation, but the subsequent effects of such changes on marinebiogeochemistry are poorly understood. Here, our aim is to investigate howclimate change will affect nutrient concentrations and biologicalproductivity in the Mediterranean Sea. To do so, we perform transientsimulations with the coupled high-resolution model NEMOMED8-PISCES using thehigh-emission IPCC Special Report on EmissionsScenarios (SRES) A2 socioeconomic scenario and correspondingAtlantic, Black Sea, and riverine nutrient inputs. Our results indicate thatnitrate is accumulating in the Mediterranean Sea over the 21st century, whilephosphorus shows no tendency. These contrasting changes result from anunbalanced nitrogen-to-phosphorus input from riverine discharge and fluxesvia the Strait of Gibraltar, which lead to an expansion of phosphorus-limitedregions across the Mediterranean. In addition, phytoplankton net primaryproductivity is reduced by 10 % in the 2090s in comparison to the presentstate, with reductions of up to 50 % in some regions such as the AegeanSea as a result of nutrient limitation and vertical stratification. We alsoperform sensitivity tests to separately study the effects of climate andbiogeochemical input changes on the future state of the Mediterranean Sea.Our results show that changes in nutrient supply from the Strait of Gibraltarand from rivers and circulation changes linked to climate change may haveantagonistic or synergistic effects on nutrient concentrations and surfaceprimary productivity. In some regions such as the Adriatic Sea, half of thebiogeochemical changes simulated during the 21st century are linked withexternal changes in nutrient input, while the other half are linked to climatechange. This study is the first to simulate future transient climate changeeffects on Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry but calls for further work tocharacterize effects from atmospheric deposition and to assess the varioussources of uncertainty.

Biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to the transient SRES-A2 climate change scenario