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. Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) intemperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetricresponses to changes in precipitation ( P ) may occur. Under normal range ofprecipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains beinglarger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereasincreases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared toreductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the currentgeneration of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon–water system ingrasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is anunresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses oftemperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of alteredprecipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrasssteppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning arainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopesderived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites weresteeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, whichwas consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses ofmodeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitationvariability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemblesuggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary toempirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity ofmodeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response withreduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitationunder extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity(GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowgroundNPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to alteredprecipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and meanvalues. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negativedrought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increasedprecipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions,highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in thosemodels in the future.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites