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. The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as amajor sink of CO 2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) showthat CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of theCO 2 flux ( F CO 2) and compare poorly with available observationproducts for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominantmode of CO 2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is arigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine thecompeting roles of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) asdrivers of the seasonal cycle of p CO 2 in the Southern Ocean to explainthe mechanistic basis for the seasonal biases in CMIP5 models. We find thatdespite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the meanannual fluxes, the intra-model homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of F CO 2 is greater than observational products. F CO 2 biases inCMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., group-SST andgroup-DIC. Group-SST models show an exaggeration of the seasonal rates ofchange of sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during thecooling and warming peaks. These higher-than-observed rates of change of SSTtip the control of the seasonal cycle of p CO 2 and F CO 2 towardsSST and result in a divergence between the observed and modeled seasonalcycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzedmodels (9 out of 10) show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namelyNorESM1-ME, HadGEM-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models)compensate for the solubility bias because of their overly exaggerated primaryproduction, such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate theseasonal cycle of F CO 2 .

biogeosciences

The seasonal cycle of &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;p&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models