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. The Chesapeake Bay region is projected to experience changes in temperature,sea level, and precipitation as a result of climate change. This researchuses an estuarine-watershed hydrodynamic–biogeochemical modeling systemalong with projected mid-21st-century changes in temperature, freshwaterflow, and sea level rise to explore the impact climate change may have onfuture Chesapeake Bay dissolved-oxygen (DO) concentrations and the potentialsuccess of nutrient reductions in attaining mandated estuarine water qualityimprovements. Results indicate that warming bay waters will decrease oxygensolubility year-round, while also increasing oxygen utilization viarespiration and remineralization, primarily impacting bottom oxygen in thespring. Rising sea level will increase estuarine circulation, reducingresidence time in bottom waters and increasing stratification. As a result,oxygen concentrations in bottom waters are projected to increase, whileoxygen concentrations at mid-depths(3 &lt; DO &lt; 5 mg L−1) will typically decrease.Changes in precipitation are projected to deliver higher winter and springfreshwater flow and nutrient loads, fueling increased primary production.Together, these multiple climate impacts will lower DO throughout theChesapeake Bay and negatively impact progress towards meeting water qualitystandards associated with the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load.However, this research also shows that the potential impacts of climatechange will be significantly smaller than improvements in DO expected inresponse to the required nutrient reductions, especially at the anoxic andhypoxic levels. Overall, increased temperature exhibits the strongest controlon the change in future DO concentrations, primarily due to decreasedsolubility, while sea level rise is expected to exert a small positive impactand increased winter river flow is anticipated to exert a small negativeimpact.

The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay