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. Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping foreststructure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than700 000 ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 millionworth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon thecoincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuelavailability, the interplay between these three drivers in shapingspatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated.The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fireactivity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as afunction of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. Weaddressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation modelLPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) thatcorrespond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada(Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus).LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a10 km 2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba toNewfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency,net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictiveskills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annualburn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequatelyreproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and thelongitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as thetemporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, thesimulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency atboth the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Quebec. Thegeneral pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well withobservations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at thenorthern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas,the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the lowdensity of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strengthof fire–weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption duringextreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of firefrequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study areaconfirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climatecoupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, oursimulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire invegetation: despite an overarching CO 2 -induced enhancement of NPP inLPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatoryeffects of increasing fire activity.

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model