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Most northern peatlands developed during the Holocene,\udsequestering large amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. However,\udrecent syntheses have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of peatland\udcarbon accumulation. Assessments of the long-term carbon accumulation rate\udand possible warming-driven changes in these accumulation rates can therefore\udbenefit from process-based modelling studies. We employed an individual-based dynamic global ecosystem model\udwith dynamic peatland and permafrost functionalities\udand patch-based vegetation dynamics to quantify long-term\udcarbon accumulation rates and to assess the effects of historical and\udprojected climate change on peatland carbon balances across the pan-Arctic\udregion. Our results are broadly consistent with published regional and global\udcarbon accumulation estimates. A majority of modelled peatland sites in\udScandinavia, Europe, Russia and central and eastern Canada change from carbon\udsinks through the Holocene to potential carbon sources in the coming century.\udIn contrast, the carbon sink capacity of modelled sites in Siberia, far\udeastern\udRussia, Alaska and western and northern Canada was predicted to increase in\udthe coming century. The greatest changes were evident in eastern Siberia,\udnorth-western Canada and in Alaska, where peat production hampered by\udpermafrost and low productivity due the cold climate in these regions in the\udpast was simulated to increase greatly due to warming, a wetter climate and\udhigher CO<sub>2</sub> levels by the year 2100. In contrast, our model predicts that\udsites that are expected to experience reduced precipitation rates and are\udcurrently permafrost free will lose more carbon in the future

Modelling past, present and future peatland carbon accumulation across the pan-Arctic region