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Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected tosignificantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next threecenturies, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems.Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of oceanacidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilitiesof ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, areduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonatesystem over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivityto parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways fromthe Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to bothobservations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) modeloutputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is alreadytaking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both thehigh- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH todecrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 unitsto 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends ofocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector'scarbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are mostsensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response)as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩArsaturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10.We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid oceanacidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulatingboth current observations and large-scale climate models under multipleemission pathways

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities