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Observed bimodal distributions of woody cover in westernAfrica provide evidence that alternative ecosystem states may exist under thesame precipitation regimes. In this study, we show that bimodality can alsobe observed in mean annual shortwave radiation and above-ground biomass,which might closely relate to woody cover due to vegetation–climateinteractions. Thus we expect that use of radiation and above-ground biomassenables us to distinguish the two modes of woody cover. However, throughconditional histogram analysis, we find that the bimodality of woody coverstill can exist under conditions of low mean annual shortwave radiation andlow above-ground biomass. It suggests that this specific condition might playa key role in critical transitions between the two modes, while under otherconditions no bimodality was found. Based on a land cover map in whichanthropogenic land use was removed, six climatic indicators that representwater, energy, climate seasonality and water–radiation coupling are analysedto investigate the coexistence of these indicators with specific land covertypes. From this analysis we find that the mean annual precipitation is notsufficient to predict potential land cover change. Indicators of climateseasonality are strongly related to the observed land cover type. However,these indicators cannot predict a stable forest state under the observedclimatic conditions, in contrast to observed forest states. A new indicator(the normalized difference of precipitation) successfully expresses thestability of the precipitation regime and can improve the prediction accuracyof forest states. Next we evaluate land cover predictions based on differentcombinations of climatic indicators. Regions with high potential of landcover transitions are revealed. The results suggest that the tropical forestin the Congo basin may be unstable and shows the possibility of decreasingsignificantly. An increase in the area covered by savanna and grass ispossible, which coincides with the observed regreening of the Sahara

The climatic imprint of bimodal distributions in vegetation cover for western Africa