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Changes in Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton distributions with futurewarming have the potential to significantly alter nutrient and carbon cyclesas well as higher trophic level productivity both locally and throughout theglobal ocean. Here we investigate the response of SO phytoplanktonproductivity and biomass to 21st century climate change across the CMIP5Earth System Model suite. The models predict a zonally banded pattern ofphytoplankton abundance and production changes within four regions: thesubtropical (~ 30 to 40° S), transitional (~ 40 to50° S), subpolar (~ 50 to 65° S) and Antarctic (southof ~ 65° S) bands. We find that shifts in bottom-up variables(nitrate, iron and light availability) drive changes in phytoplanktonabundance and production on not only interannual, but also decadal and100-year timescales – the timescales most relevant to climate change. Spatialpatterns in the modelled mechanisms driving these biomass trends qualitativelyagree with recent observations, though longer-term records are needed toseparate the effects of climate change from those of interannual variability.Because much past observational work has focused on understanding the effectsof the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on biology, future work should attempt toquantify the precise influence of an increasingly positive SAM on SO biologywithin the CMIP5 models. Continued long-term in situ and satellitemeasurements of SO biology are clearly needed to confirm model findings

A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite