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Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that are threatened by rising CO<sub>2</sub>levels through increases in sea surface temperature and ocean acidification.Here we present a new unified model that links changes in temperature andcarbonate chemistry to coral health. Changes in coral health and populationare explicitly modelled by linking rates of growth, recovery andcalcification to rates of bleaching and temperature-stress-inducedmortality. The model is underpinned by four key principles: the Arrheniusequation, thermal specialisation, correlated up- and down-regulation oftraits that are consistent with resource allocation trade-offs, and adaptionto local environments. These general relationships allow this model to beconstructed from a range of experimental and observational data. Theperformance of the model is assessed against independent data to demonstratehow it can capture the observed response of corals to stress. We alsoprovide new insights into the factors that determine calcification rates andprovide a framework based on well-known biological principles to helpunderstand the observed global distribution of calcification rates. Ourresults suggest that, despite the implicit complexity of the coral reefenvironment, a simple model based on temperature, carbonate chemistry anddifferent species can give insights into how corals respond to changes intemperature and ocean acidification

Modelling coral calcification accounting for the impacts of coral bleaching and ocean acidification