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A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number ofland-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts ofclimate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts ofclimate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run.This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations froman impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and waterresources – for four different scenarios following the representativeconcentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21stcentury, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrialecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs,even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century rangesfrom 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. Awarming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaftrees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in apoleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in allscenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenariosof greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise atregional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic landcover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warmingresults in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a largeexpansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increaseacross extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropicallatitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels ofCO<sub>2</sub> and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing withmean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and inNorth America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, therelationship with climate warming and CO<sub>2</sub> rise is less clear, probablyas a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions

biogeosciences

Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways