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The tundra ecosystem is quite vulnerable to drastic climate change in theArctic, and the quantification of carbon dynamics is of significantimportance regarding thawing permafrost, changes to the snow-covered periodand snow and shrub community extent, and the decline of sea ice in theArctic. Here, CO2 efflux measurements using a manual chamber systemwithin a 40 m × 40 m (5 m interval; 81 total points) plot wereconducted within dominant tundra vegetation on the Seward Peninsula ofAlaska, during the growing seasons of 2011 and 2012, for the assessment ofdriving parameters of CO2 efflux. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian(HB) model – a function of soil temperature, soil moisture, vegetation type,and thaw depth – to quantify the effects of environmental factors onCO2 efflux and to estimate growing season CO2 emissions. Ourresults showed that average CO2 efflux in 2011 was 1.4 times higher thanin 2012, resulting from the distinct difference in soil moisture between the2 years. Tussock-dominated CO2 efflux is 1.4 to 2.3 times higher thanthose measured in lichen and moss communities, revealing tussock as asignificant CO2 source in the Arctic, with a wide area distribution onthe circumpolar scale. CO2 efflux followed soil temperature nearlyexponentially from both the observed data and the posterior medians of the HBmodel. This reveals that soil temperature regulates the seasonal variation ofCO2 efflux and that soil moisture contributes to the interannualvariation of CO2 efflux for the two growing seasons in question. Obviouschanges in soil moisture during the growing seasons of 2011 and 2012 resultedin an explicit difference between CO2 effluxes – 742 and539 g CO2 m−2 period−1 for 2011 and 2012, respectively,suggesting the 2012 CO2 emission rate was reduced to 27% (95%credible interval: 17–36%) of the 2011 emission, due to higher soil moisture from severe rain.The estimated growing season CO2 emission rate ranged from0.86 Mg CO2 in 2012 to 1.20 Mg CO2 in 2011 within a40 m × 40 m plot, corresponding to 86 and 80% of annualCO2 emission rates within the western Alaska tundra ecosystem, estimatedfrom the temperature dependence of CO2 efflux. Therefore, this HB modelcan be readily applied to observed CO2 efflux, as it demands only fourenvironmental factors and can also be effective for quantitatively assessingthe driving parameters of CO2 efflux

biogeosciences

Constraint of soil moisture on CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; efflux from tundra lichen, moss, and tussock in Council, Alaska, using a hierarchical Bayesian model