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Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) inagricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system werecently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale undervarying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in aspatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 withhistorical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenariosof agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targetsadvocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was runsubsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-useand agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale.  A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agriculturalfields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression ofconversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to havea greater reduction of CO<sub>2</sub> emission by enhanced soil carbonsequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the convertedagricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have arelatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relativereduction of CO<sub>2</sub> emission in this scenario was comparable to that inanother contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agriculturalactivity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input toagricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate ofconversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands throughabandonment.  Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accountingon SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions andremovals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals duringa previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can belargely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-basedaccounting, defined as differences between the net emissions in theaccounting period and the ex ante estimation of net business-as-usualemissions for the same period, has robustness over variations in futureclimate and effectiveness to factor out some of the direct human-inducedeffects such as changing land-use and agricultural activity.  Factors affecting uncertainties in the estimation of the country-scalepotential of SOC sequestration were discussed, especially those related toestimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils under differentland-use types. Our study suggested that, in order to assist decision makingof policy on agriculture, land management, and mitigation of global climatechange, it is also important to take account of duration and time course of SOCsequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well asfeasibility of agricultural policy planning

biogeosciences

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories – Part 2: Future potentials