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Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations ofallergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus causeserious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking theairborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, andhuman allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is akey step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, aregional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developedthat treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the coupledWeather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ)modeling system. The Simulator of the Timing andMagnitude of Pollen Season (STaMPS) model was usedto generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphereby wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperatureand/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexiblewith respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functionaltypes (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized byconsidering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values.The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based onpollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling frameworkwas conducted for southern California (USA) for the period from March to June2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of SouthernCalifornia's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O3,PM2.5, and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxidein study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen generawere included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree,and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modelingframework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations,and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model showsreasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollenconcentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollenpool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations.Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollenreleases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations

biogeosciences

Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease