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Shelves have been estimated to account for more than one-fifth of  the global marine primary production. It has been also conjectured  that shelves strongly influence the oceanic absorption of  anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> (carbon shelf pump). Owing to their coarse  resolution, currently applied global climate models are  inappropriate to investigate the impact of climate change on shelves  and regional models do not account for the complex interaction with  the adjacent open ocean. In this study, a global ocean general  circulation model and biogeochemistry model were set up with  a distorted grid providing a maximal resolution for the NW European  shelf and the adjacent northeast Atlantic.Using model climate projections we found that already a~moderate  warming of about 2.0 K of the sea surface is linked with  a reduction by ~ 30% of the biological production on the NW  European shelf. If we consider the decline of anthropogenic riverine  eutrophication since the 1990s, the reduction of biological production  amounts is even larger. The relative decline of NW European shelf productivity  is twice as strong as the decline in the open ocean  (~ 15%). The underlying mechanism is a spatially well  confined stratification feedback along the continental shelf break.  This feedback reduces the nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic to  about 50%. In turn, the reduced productivity draws down CO<sub>2</sub> absorption in the North Sea by ~ 34% at the end  of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century implying  a strong weakening of shelf carbon pumping. Sensitivity experiments  with diagnostic tracers indicate that not more than 20% of the  carbon absorbed in the North Sea contributes to the long-term carbon  uptake of the world ocean. The rest remains within the ocean's mixed  layer where it is exposed to the atmosphere.The predicted decline in biological productivity, and decrease of  phytoplankton concentration (in the North Sea by averaged 25%) due to reduced  nutrient imports from the deeper Atlantic will probably  affect the local fish stock negatively and therefore fisheries in the North  Sea

NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean – shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption