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The importance of wind power forecasting (WPF) is nowadays commonlyrecognized because it represents a useful tool to reduce problems of gridintegration and to facilitate energy trading. If on one side the predictionaccuracy is fundamental to these scopes, on the other it has become alsoclear that a reliable estimation about their uncertainty is paramount. Infact prediction accuracy is unfortunately not constant and can depend on thelocation of a particular wind farm, on the forecast time and on theatmospheric situation. Previous studies indicated that the spread of powerforecasts derived from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in use at theEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) could be used asindicator of a three-hourly, three days ahead, wind power forecast'saccuracy. In this paper a new application of the EPS, whose horizontalresolution was increased on January 2010 from T399/T255 (60 km) to T639/T319(32 km), shows an improvement in the results implying that the power spreadhas actually enough correlation with the error calculated on thedeterministic forecast in order to be used as an accuracy predictor. Theperiods for this comparison are from January 2008 until October 2008(T399/T255) and from January 2011 until October 2011 (T639/T319). Moreoverwe have focused our attention on the influence of the new EPS configurationon the performance of a deterministic WPF conducted with the ensemble mean:the results show that increasing the EPS resolution yields a single-valuedWPF whose performance is comparable with that of the new ECMWF deterministichigh-resolution meteorological model, whose spatial resolution increasedfrom T799 (25 km) to T1279 (15 km)

The influence of the new ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System resolution on wind power forecast accuracy and uncertainty estimation