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Temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration measurements atmeteorological stations across the southern Indian Ocean have been analysedto try to differentiate the possible influence of the Mount Pinatubovolcanic eruption in the Philippines in June 1991 and the normal weatherforcings. During December 1991, precipitation on the tropical islandsGlorieuses (11.6° S) and Mayotte (12.8° S) was 4 and3 times greater, respectively, than the climatological mean (precipitation is greater by morethan than twice the standard deviation (SD)). Mean sunshine duration(expressed in sun hours per day) was only 6 h on Mayotte, although thesunshine duration is usually more than 7.5 ± 0.75 h, and on the Glorieusesit was only 5 h, although it is usually 8.5 ± 1 h. Mean and SD of sunshine duration are based on December (1964–2001 for Mayotte,1966–1999 for the Glorieuses).The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shown to correlate best withprecipitation in this area. Variability controlling the warm zone on thesetwo islands can be increased by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño,the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and/or solar activity (sunspot number, SSN). However,temperature records of these two islands show weak dependence on suchforcings (temperatures are close to the climatological mean for December).This suggests that such weather forcings have an indirect effect on theprecipitation.December 1991 was associated with unusually low values of the MJO index,which favours high rainfall, as well as with El Niño, eastern QBO and high SSN,which favour high variability. It is therefore not clear whether the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption had an effect. Since the precipitation anomaliesat the Glorieuses and Mayotte are more or less local (Global PrecipitationClimatology Project (GPCP) data) and the effect of the Pinatubo volcaniccloud should be more widespread, it seems unlikely that Pinatubo was thecause.Islands at higher southern latitudes (south of Tromelin at15.5° S) were not affected by the Pinatubo eruption in terms ofsunshine duration, precipitation or temperature

Investigation of weather anomalies in the low-latitude islands of the Indian Ocean in 1991