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In this paper, interannual variability of tropospheric air temperatures overthe Asian summer monsoon region during the pre-monsoon months is examined inrelation to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September totalrainfall). For this purpose, monthly grid-point temperatures in the entiretroposphere over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR data for the period1949–2012 have been used. Spatial correlation patterns are investigatedbetween the temperature field in the lower tropospheric levels during Mayover the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR. The results indicate a strongand significant northwest–southeast dipole structure in the spatialcorrelations over the Indian region, with highly significant positive(negative) correlations over the regions of north India and the westernTibetan Plateau region – region R1 (north Bay of Bengal: region R2). Theobserved dipole is seen significantly up to a level of 850 hPa andeventually disappears at 700 hPa. Thermal indices evaluated at 850 hPalevel, based on average air temperatures over the north India and westernTibetan Plateau region (TI1) and the north Bay of Bengal region(TI2) during May, show a strong, significant relationship with the ISMR.The results are found to be consistent and robust, especially in the case ofTI1 during the period of analysis. A physical mechanism for therelationship between these indices and ISMR is proposed. Finally thecomposite annual cycle of tropospheric air temperature over R1 duringflood/drought years of ISMR is examined. The study brings out the importanceof the TI1 in the prediction of flood/drought conditions over the Indiansubcontinent

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India