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Statistical analyses have been applied to the gridded\udmonthly means of total ozone from combined TOMS and SBUV measurements\ud(version 8 of the data) for the period 1978-2003. We focus on the detection of a\udchange in the trend pattern by searching for a turnaround in the previous\uddownward trend. The ozone time series have been examined separately for each\udgrid point and season, taking into account the various descriptions of the trend\udterm: double-linear, proportional to the index of the overall chlorine content in\udthe stratosphere, and a smooth curve without an a priori defined shape (the\udoutput of the regression model). Standard explanatory variables representing\udphysical and chemical processes known to influence the ozone distribution\udhave been considered: Mg II index, QBO wind at 10 and 30 hPa, zonal wind\udanomalies at 50 hPa along the 60° north or 60° south circle, the index of\udthe stratospheric aerosols loading in the NH or SH, and the tropopause pressure. The\udmultivariate adaptive regression splines methodology is used to find an\udoptimal set of the explanatory variables and shape of the trend curve. The\udstatistical errors of the models' estimates have been calculated using block\udbootstrapping of the models' residuals. The results appear to be consistent\udamong models using different formulations of the trend pattern. The 2003\udlevel of total ozone after the removal of the variations due to the\udparameterized dynamical/chemical forcing on the ozone is still below the\udlong-term (1978-2003) mean level over the extratropical regions. The deficit\udis ~2-5% in the NH and much larger in the SH and exhibits clear seasonal\udvariability, ~15% in autumn, ~10% in winter, and\ud~-5% in spring and summer. The present total ozone level is higher beyond\udthe tropics than that in the mid 1990s but it is too early to announce a\udbeginning of the ozone recovery there because of the trend uncertainties, due\udto errors of the regression estimates for individual grid points and\udlongitudinal variability of the trend pattern. A rigorous statistical test\udhas shown the statistically significant turnaround for some grid points over\udthe extratropical region and a deepening of the ozone negative trend has not\udbeen found for any grid point

Change in ozone depletion rates beginning in the mid 1990s: trend analyses of the TOMS/ SBUV merged total ozone data, 1978-2003