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A new, powerful\ud statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is\ud applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk,\ud Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000.\ud Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky\ud covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk)\ud and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the\ud surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard\ud indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations,\ud and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results\ud there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed\ud year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields\ud better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on\ud the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling\ud interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible\ud nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the\ud atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS\ud enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on\ud the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages.  <b>Key words. </b>Atmospheric composition\ud and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions

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Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000