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A method for forecasting very short-term rainfall to detect potentiallyhazardous convective cloud that produces heavy local rainfall was developedusing actual volumetric C-band polarimetric radar data. Because the rainfallestimation algorithm used in this method removed the effect of ice particlesbased on polarimetric measurements, it was immune to the high reflectivityassociated with hail. The reliability of the algorithm was confirmed bycomparing the rainfall rate estimated from the polarimetric radarmeasurements at the lowest elevation angle with that obtained from opticaldisdrometers on the ground. The rainfall rate estimated from polarimetricdata agreed well with the results obtained from the disdrometers, and wasmuch more reliable than results derived from reflectivity alone. Two small cumulus cells were analyzed, one of which developed and laterproduced heavy rainfall, whereas the other did not. Observations made bypolarimetric radar with a volumetric scan revealed that a high verticalmaximum intensity of rainfall rate and a vertical area of enhanceddifferential reflectivity extending above the freezing level, often termed ahigh ZDR column, were clearly formed about 10 min prior to the onsetof heavy rainfall on the ground. The onset time of the heavy rainfall couldbe estimated in advance from the polarimetric data, which agreed fairly wellwith observations. These polarimetric characteristics were not observed forthe cumulus cell that did not produce heavy rainfall. The results suggestthat both the vertical maximum intensity of the rainfall rate and a highZDR column, estimated from polarimetric measurements, can be used toidentify potentially hazardous clouds. Furthermore, this study shows thatpolarimetric radar measurements with high spatial and temporal resolutionsare invaluable for disaster reduction

Detection of potentially hazardous convective clouds with a dual-polarized C-band radar