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In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two global horizontal solarirradiance (GHI) estimates, one derived from Meteosat Second Generation(MSG) and another from the 1-day forecast of the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model. The horizontal resolution of theMSG-GHI is 3 × 5 km2 over Italy, which is the focus area of this study.For this paper, RAMS has the horizontal resolution of 4 km. The performances of the MSG-GHI estimate and RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast areevaluated for 1 year (1 June 2013–31 May 2014) against data of 12ground-based pyranometers over Italy spanning a range of climaticconditions, i.e. from maritime Mediterranean to Alpine climate. Statistics for hourly GHI and daily integrated GHI are presented for thefour seasons and the whole year for all the measurement sites. Different skyconditions are considered in the analysis Results for hourly data show an evident dependence on the sky conditions,with the root mean square error (RMSE) increasing from clear to cloudyconditions. The RMSE is substantially higher for Alpine stations in all theseasons, mainly because of the increase of the cloud coverage for thesestations, which is not well represented at the satellite and modelresolutions. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for the RAMSmodel, the RMSE ranges from 152 W m−2 (31 %) obtained forCozzo Spadaro, a maritime station, to 287 W m−2 (82 %) for Aosta, anAlpine site. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data forMSG-GHI, the minimum RMSE is for Cozzo Spadaro (71 W m−2, 14 %), whilethe maximum is for Aosta (181 W m−2, 51 %). The mean bias error (MBE)shows the tendency of RAMS to over-forecast the GHI, while no specificbehaviour is found for MSG-GHI. Results for daily integrated GHI show a lower RMSE compared to hourly GHIevaluation for both RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast and MSG-GHI estimate.Considering the yearly evaluation, the RMSE of daily integrated GHI is atleast 9 % lower (in percentage units, from 31 to 22 % for RAMS inCozzo Spadaro) than the RMSE computed for hourly data for each station. Apartial compensation of underestimation and overestimation of the GHIcontributes to the RMSE reduction. Furthermore, a post-processing technique,namely model output statistics (MOS), is applied to improve the GHI forecastat hourly and daily temporal scales. The application of MOS shows animprovement of RAMS-GHI forecast, which depends on the site considered,while the impact of MOS on MSG-GHI RMSE is small

Comparison of hourly surface downwelling solar radiation estimated from MSG–SEVIRI and forecast by the RAMS model with pyranometers over Italy