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The HYDROPTIMET case studies 9-10/06/2000 Catalogne, 8-9/09/2002Cévennes and 24-26/11/2002 Piémont encompass prototype flash-floodsituations in the western Mediterranean, attending to the relevant synopticand mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. Aprominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in allevents prior and during the period of heavy rains, which clearly served asthe precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and thecyclogenesis at low levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in therepresentation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope withit within the operational context when attempting to issue short tomid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events,a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected casestudies, subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-levelprecursor disturbance, is carried out in this paper by means of numericalsimulations

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance